The Reserve Bank of Malawi (RBM) has revised upwards its 2025 mining sector growth projection to 6.3 percent from 5.6 percent, citing the resumption of uranium production at Kayelekera Mine in Karonga.
In its second-quarter Financial and Economic Review, the central bank said the sector is expected to expand to 6.3 percent this year, up from 4.8 percent in 2024. Growth will be supported by strong demand for rock aggregate for construction as well as renewed activity in large-scale mining.
“The establishment of the Mines and Minerals Regulatory Authority and the Malawi Mining Investment Company will also enhance the sector’s performance,” the report states.
RBM projects mining output to rise further to 7.2 percent in 2026, reinforcing expectations that extraction will once again become a key contributor to national output.
The Malawi Chamber of Mines and Energy estimates the industry’s share of GDP could climb to 12 percent by 2027, driven by three major projects: Lotus Resources’ Kayelekera Mine, Global Metals’ planned operations from 2026, and Lindian’s Kangankunde Rare Earth Project.
Before Kayelekera was placed on care and maintenance in 2014, mining contributed about 10 percent to GDP. Since then, the figure dropped to just 0.7 percent in 2023, according to the 2024 Government Annual Economic Report.
With Kayelekera having produced its first “yellowcake” in recent weeks, the chamber’s national coordinator, geologist and consultant Grain Malunga, said the sector’s GDP contribution could rebound to between four and seven percent within the first year of resumed production.
“By 2027, we anticipate the sector will contribute 12 percent to GDP,” Malunga said.
The National Planning Commission (NPC) says the chamber’s forecasts align with its own projections. NPC communications specialist Thom Khanje said mining could help push Malawi towards its ambition of attaining lower-middle-income status by 2030.
He added that even a single large-scale mine can significantly influence GDP, with the commission projecting a 15 percent contribution from the sector by 2030.
The Ministry of Mining’s five-year strategic plan outlines measures to build capacity for artisanal and small-scale miners, strengthen regulation and adopt new technologies. The Ministry of Finance has also pledged to safeguard the public interest with robust oversight as mining expands.
But industry experts warn progress remains uneven. Malunga noted delays in installing laboratory equipment at the Mines Department and said the geological database remains non-functional.
Mining consultant Ignatius Kamwanje added that while targets are lagging, “there are signs the sector is on track to achieve the long-term 2030 goals.”
Mines and Minerals Regulatory Authority director general Samuel Sakhuta has pledged that policies will be formulated and implemented promptly to avoid bureaucratic delays.
